Thursday, April 3, 2008

Is McCain-Clinton '08 possible?


I thought this was a crazy idea when it first occurred to me. I notice that a few bloggers have floated it, especially since Clinton's "fitness to be commander-in-chief" comments.

So Hillary must be fully aware that her path to the WH as the Dem nominee is pretty unlikely. With the polls tightening in PA, and the increasing calls for her to quit, as well as predictions from her own supporters, like Rev. Cleaver, that she won't win, it's got to be obvious to her. I believe she is stubborn and probably has a massive ego, but she's not stupid.

But is there another path to the WH? If Obama as the Dem candidate loses to McCain, then she could try for the Dem nomination again in 2012. But her scorched earth agenda means that many in the party will be wary of her and I think that this route is an iffy one. Obama might well win, maybe even get that landslide that some of his supporters believe. I wouldn't be shocked at that, Obama's run has been an amazing political phenomena.

But if after still not gaining many or any new delegates after PA, NC and IA, or being further behind, which is possible, she will probably have to heed the calls and drop out. Could McCain then decide to make the announcement that HRC is going to be his running mate?

Cons for McCain-Clinton: 
Some Democrats and some of her supporters that are more liberal will drop their support of her. But at this point I get the feeling, after all she's done to potentially damage her party that most of her supporters who are left are on the right of the Democratic party or really don't care much about the party.

Even though the hard-right Limbaugh inspired types who have launched "Operation Chaos" to vote for Clinton in the primaries and flood the blogosphere with racist wedge-issue nonsense about why Obama can't win, ever had any intention of actually voting for her if she had won the Dem nomination. These people just wanted to see Clinton as the Dem candidate because they believed she would be an easier adversary for McCain. These same win-at-all-cost, cheap-shot warriors would start in blasting the Clinton's with both barrels full of swift-boating liberal-baiting, baby-killing froth if she had been able to win. They know she's the weaker candidate of the two Dems left.

Pros for McCain-Clinton
So if they were now faced with voting for her as VP, would they? I think so, if the alternative is Obama. These people don't like McCain much either, but from their point of view they have nowhere to go, it's either McCain or a "negro-communist" president. Even with the hated Hillary on the ticket, who has done as much as humanly possible to prove she's as right-wing as any Republican, they would vote McCain-Hillary over Obama-Whoever in a heartbeat in the general election.

McCain could announce a bi-partisan ticket, as a grand piece of statesmanship, for "the good of the country" and as "necessary in these troubled times", even use Obama's rhetoric of "healing the nation". Enough of the Democratic and independent support would migrate to this ticket to turn the race in most swing states and ensure the victory. I don't think Obama would stand a chance against this combination.

VP Clinton would come in handy as a go-between with the almost certain to be hugely Democratic Senate and House.

In 2012 Vice-President Clinton would be a shoe-in as the nominee, even after betraying the party's nominee Obama. By that time there'll be some rising star on the re-grouped GOP side, who will have all the swift-boaters at his back to take on Clinton. And by that time, they'll have much more dirt on her and Bill than they even have now and they would be sure to use it.

Of course this is all contingent on McCain being a one-term president. I don't think Clinton will want to try again at age 68, that's not quite 71, but it's old enough to weaken any marginal appeal she may have.

Anyway, only my opinion of a possible strategy. I would hope that it could never happen.

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Edit: I found some interesting discussion of this subject, analyzed from several different directions on RedState. And looky here, someone already owns the domain.

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